Week 14 NFL Best Bets and Props from Mike Somich:
Here are my Week 14 NFL best bets and props:Los Angeles Chargers vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-4, 43)
Well, the Chiefs are finally being priced at a reasonable number off six straight non-covers. They are getting some help back on the offensive line, which has been the largest offensive weakness for this team all season. They also have another week for Isiah Pacheco to get back to healthy. I was really hoping that we would get to a flat 3 here, but Chiefs money hit the market at -3.5, and I would now be shocked if 3 ever entered the market.The Chargers are coming off a faulty final win versus the Falcons, where we saw the absolute worst of Kirk Cousins. I have concerns around the offense. The loss of JK Dobbins two weeks ago basically left this run game in the mud, with Gus Edwards taking over as the lead back. Now Ladd McConkey, a favorite of mine for props, is banged up to the point that he may miss. Last week, he accounted for close to half of the total yards the Chargers gained while not playing a full sixty minutes.
I don’t see where the points come from here. The Chiefs defense stifled this Chargers offense in an earlier meeting. Yes, the Chiefs get back some O-line help, but this Chargers pass rush is also healthy with Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack on the edges. While I lean Kansas City, I’m betting the Under.
Week 14 NFL Best Bet: Under 43
Atlanta Falcons vs. Minnesota Vikings (-6, 45.5)
The aforementioned Kirk Cousins looked injured and old last week. He lacked velocity on his throws and still is not moving very well. Now he’s got to travel to Minnesota and face a blitz-happy, aggressive Brian Flores defense that is exactly the opposite of what he excels against. To make matters worse, the Vikings know Cousins extremely well and let him walk in the offseason. I expect this coaching staff to have a specific game plan built to attack the weaknesses they saw in years of play with the Vikings.On the other side of the ball, this is a juicy match for the Vikings. You have a top-five pass block win rate offensive line taking on the 29th-best pass rush in the NFL. If Darnold is not pressured, he will have a field day against a below-average secondary with all his weapons healthy.
I would not be surprised at all if we saw rookie signal caller Michael Penix Jr. in the second half here, so I like Unders on Cousins yards and attempts, and I’m tempted to take the Over on Sam Darnold passing yards as well, but the Vikings side is my favorite play here.
Week 14 NFL Best Bet: Vikings -6
Prop Plays
Calvin Ridley Over 67.5 Receiving Yards
Let’s run it back against the Jacksonville secondary who has struggled all year versus WR1s. Ridley has gone over this total in four of his last six, and really should have last week as well, where he caught just two of his seven targets. I like his longest reception Over 24.5 yards here as well. He’s eclipsed that number in six of his last seven, and this is a Jags unit not shy about giving up the big play.
Chase Brown Over 102.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards
This is a great matchup for Chase Brown, even though Dallas’s defense has gotten healthier over the last few weeks. They are a turnstile against the run and struggle to cover RBs out of the backfield. There is not a game state that puts this in jeopardy either since Brown is capable of fifty-plus receiving yards when the Bengals are down.
Other Plays
George Pickens Longest Reception Over 28.5 Yards
James Cook Over 61.5 Rush Yards
